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These are hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Learn more

Trades-Own-Strategy Certification

This system has earned Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification. This means that the manager of this system trades his own strategy in a real-life, funded brokerage account.

Trades-Own-Strategy (TOS) Certification Details
Certification process started 09/21/2020
Most recent certification approved 9/21/20 14:49 ET
Trades at broker Interactive Brokers (server 2 / Stocks, Option, Futures)
Scaling percentage used 100%
# trading signals issued by system since certification 60
# trading signals executed in manager's Interactive Brokers (server 2 / Stocks, Option, Futures) account 60
Percent signals followed since 09/21/2020 100%
This information was last updated 10/28/20 7:24 ET

Warning: System trading results are still hypothetical.

Even though the system developer is currently trading his own system in a real-life brokerage account, the trading results presented on this Web site must still be regarded as purely hypothetical results. This is because (among other reasons) the system developer may not have traded all signals, particularly those that occurred before 09/21/2020, and the system developer's results may not match the system results presented here. In addition, not all subscribers have received the same trades or prices as the system manager has. For these reasons, and others, it is extremely important you remember the following:

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

You may be interested to learn more technical details about how Collective2 calculates the hypothetical results you see on this web site.

Opt for Patience
(130031785)

Created by: InteractiveAssets InteractiveAssets
Started: 07/2020
Stocks
Last trade: 14 days ago
Trading style: Equity Trend-following Sector Rotation

Subscriptions not available

No subscriptions are currently available for this strategy because the strategy manager has capped the maximum number of subscribers.

Subscription terms. Subscriptions to this system cost $125.00 per month.

C2Star

C2Star is a certification program for trading strategies. In order to become "C2Star Certified," a strategy must apply tight risk controls, and must exhibit excellent performance characteristics, including low drawdowns.

You can read more about C2Star certification requirements here.

Note that: all trading strategies are risky, and C2Star Certification does not imply that a strategy is low risk.

Trading Category: Equity
Trend-following
Category: Equity

Trend-following

Tries to take advantage of long, medium or short-term moves that seem to play out in various markets. Typically, trend-following analysis is backward looking; that is, it attempts to recognize and profit from already-established trends.
Sector Rotation
Category: Equity

Sector Rotation

Uses the proceeds from the sale of securities related to a particular investment sector for the purchase of securities in another sector. This strategy is used as a method for capturing returns from market cycles and diversifying holdings over a specified holding period.
17.1%
Cumul. Return

Rate of Return Calculations

Overview

To comply with NFA regulations, we display Cumulative Rate of Return for strategies with a track record of less than one year. For strategies with longer track records, we display Annualized (Compounded) Rate of Return.

How Cumulative Rate of Return is calculated

= (Ending_equity - Starting_equity) / Starting_equity

Remember that, following NFA requirements, strategy subscription costs and estimated commissions are included in marked-to-market equity calculations.

All results are hypothetical.

(21.2%)
Max Drawdown
21
Num Trades
52.4%
Win Trades
3.2 : 1
Profit Factor
75.0%
Win Months
Hypothetical Monthly Returns (includes system fee and Typical Broker commissions and fees)
 JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDecYTD
2020                                          +4.8%+16.5%(13.1%)+10.3%            +17.1%

Model Account Details

A trading strategy on Collective2. Follow it in your broker account, or use a free simulated trading account.

Advanced users may want to use this information to adjust their AutoTrade scaling, or merely to understand the magnitudes of the nearby chart.

System developer has asked us to delay this information by 168 hours.

Trading Record

This strategy has placed 98 trades in real-life brokerage accounts. To see live brokerage data, select Show AutoTrade Data, and click on a Live AutoTrade Indicator symbol.

Download CSV
Long
Short
Both
Win
Loss
Both
Opened Date/TimeSymbolDescriptionSideQtyAvg PriceClosed Date/TimeAvg PriceDrawdownP/L
10/6/20 15:37 TMF DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL LONG 568 38.01 10/8 15:55 37.66 0.63%
Trade id #131548885
Max drawdown($659)
Time10/7/20 0:00
Quant open552
Worst price36.84
Drawdown as % of equity-0.63%
($203)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $8.34
10/6/20 15:46 VXX2119O48 VXX Mar19'21 48 put LONG 2 25.65 10/7 11:14 26.19 n/a $105
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.80
10/6/20 15:08 SPXL DIREXION DAILY S&P500 BULL 3X LONG 1 52.61 10/6 15:35 53.54 n/a $1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.02
10/1/20 15:53 VXX2119O49 VXX Mar19'21 49 put LONG 3 26.61 10/6 15:03 26.60 0.15%
Trade id #131470231
Max drawdown($162)
Time10/2/20 0:00
Quant open3
Worst price26.07
Drawdown as % of equity-0.15%
($7)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $4.20
10/1/20 15:43 VXX2115M49 VXX Jan15'21 49 put LONG 5 25.80 10/6 15:02 25.79 0.3%
Trade id #131469969
Max drawdown($326)
Time10/2/20 0:00
Quant open5
Worst price25.15
Drawdown as % of equity-0.30%
($13)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.00
9/22/20 9:32 SPXL DIREXION DAILY S&P500 BULL 3X LONG 381 49.81 9/30 15:15 52.37 1.51%
Trade id #131289776
Max drawdown($1,478)
Time9/24/20 0:00
Quant open381
Worst price45.93
Drawdown as % of equity-1.51%
$969
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $7.62
9/21/20 14:49 GBTC GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST (BTC) COMMON STOCK LONG 1,460 11.03 9/30 15:15 10.91 1.21%
Trade id #131277985
Max drawdown($1,273)
Time9/30/20 9:30
Quant open1,241
Worst price10.00
Drawdown as % of equity-1.21%
($179)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.88
9/21/20 15:20 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 318 116.14 9/30 15:13 131.56 2.27%
Trade id #131278646
Max drawdown($2,216)
Time9/24/20 0:00
Quant open318
Worst price109.17
Drawdown as % of equity-2.27%
$4,897
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $6.36
9/21/20 14:49 GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES LONG 59 179.14 9/30 15:13 177.39 0.32%
Trade id #131277987
Max drawdown($317)
Time9/24/20 0:00
Quant open59
Worst price173.77
Drawdown as % of equity-0.32%
($104)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $1.18
9/21/20 14:49 TMF DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL LONG 101 40.86 9/30 15:13 40.13 0.14%
Trade id #131277983
Max drawdown($148)
Time9/30/20 12:21
Quant open101
Worst price39.39
Drawdown as % of equity-0.14%
($76)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.02
9/25/20 15:21 DGP POWERSHARES DB GOLD DOUBLE LON LONG 1 43.87 9/30 14:31 45.15 0%
Trade id #131371898
Max drawdown($0)
Time9/25/20 15:57
Quant open1
Worst price43.55
Drawdown as % of equity-0.00%
$1
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $0.02
7/13/20 11:55 VXX2016V62 VXX Oct16'20 62 put LONG 8 31.70 9/21 9:39 36.14 0.19%
Trade id #130049618
Max drawdown($192)
Time7/13/20 13:50
Quant open8
Worst price31.46
Drawdown as % of equity-0.19%
$3,536
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $12.08
7/13/20 11:55 TMF DIREXION DAILY 20+ YR TRSY BUL LONG 624.400000000 41.16 9/21 9:39 40.12 0.9%
Trade id #130049617
Max drawdown($943)
Time9/9/20 0:00
Quant open624
Worst price39.65
Drawdown as % of equity-0.90%
($659)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $9.82
7/13/20 11:55 TQQQ PROSHARES ULTRAPRO QQQ LONG 824.800000000 123.45 9/21 9:39 118.88 6.26%
Trade id #130049616
Max drawdown($6,054)
Time7/24/20 0:00
Quant open302
Worst price101.01
Drawdown as % of equity-6.26%
($3,782)
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.48
7/13/20 11:55 GBTC GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST (BTC) COMMON STOCK LONG 3,319.200000000 10.39 9/21 9:39 10.82 1%
Trade id #130049615
Max drawdown($959)
Time7/16/20 0:00
Quant open1,499
Worst price9.30
Drawdown as % of equity-1.00%
$1,428
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $16.48
7/13/20 11:55 GLD SPDR GOLD SHARES LONG 119.200000000 174.32 9/21 9:39 177.94 0.07%
Trade id #130049614
Max drawdown($69)
Time7/16/20 0:00
Quant open59
Worst price168.65
Drawdown as % of equity-0.07%
$429
Includes Typical Broker Commissions trade costs of $2.38

Statistics

  • Strategy began
    7/12/2020
  • Suggested Minimum Cap
    $100,000
  • Strategy Age (days)
    107.6
  • Age
    108 days ago
  • What it trades
    Stocks
  • # Trades
    21
  • # Profitable
    11
  • % Profitable
    52.40%
  • Avg trade duration
    25.1 days
  • Max peak-to-valley drawdown
    21.17%
  • drawdown period
    Sept 01, 2020 - Sept 23, 2020
  • Cumul. Return
    17.2%
  • Avg win
    $1,749
  • Avg loss
    $597.80
  • Model Account Values (Raw)
  • Cash
    $61,770
  • Margin Used
    $0
  • Buying Power
    $73,880
  • Ratios
  • W:L ratio
    3.22:1
  • Sharpe Ratio
    1.24
  • Sortino Ratio
    1.72
  • Calmar Ratio
    4.208
  • CORRELATION STATISTICS
  • Return of Strat Pcnt - Return of SP500 Pcnt (cumu)
    10.69%
  • Correlation to SP500
    0.60840
  • Return Percent SP500 (cumu) during strategy life
    6.46%
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (w trading costs)
    68.5%
  • Slump
  • Current Slump as Pcnt Equity
    5.80%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Futures
    n/a
  • Slump
  • Current Slump, time of slump as pcnt of strategy life
    0.52%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt Since TOS Status
    17.820%
  • Instruments
  • Short Options - Percent Covered
    100.00%
  • Return Statistics
  • Return Pcnt (Compound or Annual, age-based, NFA compliant)
    0.172%
  • Instruments
  • Percent Trades Options
    0.19%
  • Percent Trades Stocks
    0.81%
  • Percent Trades Forex
    n/a
  • Return Statistics
  • Ann Return (Compnd, No Fees)
    74.0%
  • Automation
  • Percentage Signals Automated
    n/a
  • Popularity
  • Popularity (Today)
    0
  • Popularity (Last 6 weeks)
    866
  • Trading Style
  • Any stock shorts? 0/1
    0
  • Popularity
  • C2 Score
    827
  • Popularity (7 days, Percentile 1000 scale)
    469
  • Management
  • No Subs Allowed Flag (1: no subs)
    0
  • Strat abandoned?
    0
  • Trades-Own-System Certification
  • Trades Own System?
    Yes
  • TOS percent
    100%
  • Win / Loss
  • Avg Loss
    $598
  • Avg Win
    $2,173
  • Sum Trade PL (losers)
    $5,978.000
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader num accounts)
    2
  • Age
  • Num Months filled monthly returns table
    4
  • Win / Loss
  • Sum Trade PL (winners)
    $23,901.000
  • # Winners
    11
  • Num Months Winners
    3
  • Dividends
  • Dividends Received in Model Acct
    0
  • AUM
  • AUM (AutoTrader live capital)
    141339
  • Win / Loss
  • # Losers
    10
  • % Winners
    52.4%
  • Frequency
  • Avg Position Time (mins)
    36210.70
  • Avg Position Time (hrs)
    603.51
  • Avg Trade Length
    25.1 days
  • Last Trade Ago
    1
  • Leverage
  • Daily leverage (average)
    1.47
  • Daily leverage (max)
    2.08
  • Regression
  • Alpha
    0.07
  • Beta
    1.27
  • Treynor Index
    0.12
  • Maximum Adverse Excursion (MAE)
  • MAE:Equity, average, all trades
    0.01
  • MAE:PL - worst single value for strategy
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, winning trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, losing trades)
    -
  • MAE:PL (avg, all trades)
    -5.59
  • MAE:Equity, average, winning trades
    0.01
  • MAE:Equity, average, losing trades
    0.01
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - All trades
    1.716
  • MAE:Equity, losing trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, win trades only, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    -
  • MAE:Equity, 95th Percentile Value for this strat
    0.02
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Winning trades
    0.413
  • Avg(MAE) / Avg(PL) - Losing trades
    -2.008
  • Hold-and-Hope Ratio
    0.885
  • Analysis based on MONTHLY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.69123
  • SD
    0.33714
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    2.05030
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.15676
  • df
    2.00000
  • t
    1.02515
  • p
    0.20655
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.47036
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.20999
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.92379
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.23731
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    6.34144
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    8.34144
  • Upside part of mean
    0.90923
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.21800
  • Upside SD
    0.32204
  • Downside SD
    0.10900
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    1.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    3.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.41555
  • Mean of criterion
    0.69123
  • SD of predictor
    0.14995
  • SD of criterion
    0.33714
  • Covariance
    0.04987
  • r
    0.98637
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    2.21764
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.23032
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00615
  • DF error
    1.00000
  • t(b)
    5.99559
  • p(b)
    0.05261
  • t(a)
    -1.04868
  • p(a)
    0.75756
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.48212
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    6.91740
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -3.02092
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.56028
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.31169
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.23032
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.63549
  • SD
    0.32728
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.94173
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.09551
  • df
    2.00000
  • t
    0.97087
  • p
    0.21701
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.53222
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    6.06534
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.96878
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.15979
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    5.68333
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    7.68333
  • Upside part of mean
    0.85913
  • Downside part of mean
    -0.22363
  • Upside SD
    0.30424
  • Downside SD
    0.11182
  • N nonnegative terms
    2.00000
  • N negative terms
    1.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    3.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.40052
  • Mean of criterion
    0.63549
  • SD of predictor
    0.14602
  • SD of criterion
    0.32728
  • Covariance
    0.04716
  • r
    0.98676
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    2.21159
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    -0.25030
  • Mean Square Error
    0.00564
  • DF error
    1.00000
  • t(b)
    6.08382
  • p(b)
    0.05186
  • t(a)
    -1.19679
  • p(a)
    0.77844
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    -2.40737
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    6.83055
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -2.90773
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    2.40713
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.28735
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    -0.25030
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.09737
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.13179
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03307
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.06227
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    3.00000
  • Minimum
    0.94783
  • Quartile 1
    1.02850
  • Median
    1.10918
  • Quartile 3
    1.11598
  • Maximum
    1.12279
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.94783
  • Mean of quarter 2
    1.10918
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.12279
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.08748
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    1.00000
  • Minimum
    0.05217
  • Quartile 1
    0.05217
  • Median
    0.05217
  • Quartile 3
    0.05217
  • Maximum
    0.05217
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.00000
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.00000
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.00000
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.72158
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.94138
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    18.04360
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    0.00000
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    7.14324
  • 0.00000
  • 0.00000
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, full history
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.64514
  • SD
    0.36424
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.77120
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.75367
  • df
    76.00000
  • t
    0.96020
  • p
    0.17000
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -1.86078
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.39176
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -1.87244
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.37977
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.53650
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    10.24010
  • Upside part of mean
    2.60449
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.95935
  • Upside SD
    0.26047
  • Downside SD
    0.25434
  • N nonnegative terms
    43.00000
  • N negative terms
    34.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    77.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.23181
  • Mean of criterion
    0.64514
  • SD of predictor
    0.17221
  • SD of criterion
    0.36424
  • Covariance
    0.03790
  • r
    0.60428
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.27806
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.34900
  • Mean Square Error
    0.08535
  • DF error
    75.00000
  • t(b)
    6.56799
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.64513
  • p(a)
    0.26041
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.89042
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.66570
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.72841
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.42615
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.50478
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.34887
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to Sharpe ratio
  • Mean
    0.57856
  • SD
    0.36576
  • Sharpe ratio (Glass type estimate)
    1.58181
  • Sharpe ratio (Hedges UMVUE)
    1.56614
  • df
    76.00000
  • t
    0.85753
  • p
    0.19692
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    -2.04745
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for Sharpe Ratio
    5.20077
  • Lowerbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    -2.05779
  • Upperbound of 95% CI (Gibbons, Hedeker & Davis approximation
    5.19008
  • Statistics related to Sortino ratio
  • Sortino ratio
    2.22497
  • Upside Potential Ratio
    9.88737
  • Upside part of mean
    2.57101
  • Downside part of mean
    -1.99245
  • Upside SD
    0.25633
  • Downside SD
    0.26003
  • N nonnegative terms
    43.00000
  • N negative terms
    34.00000
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • N of observations
    77.00000
  • Mean of predictor
    0.21699
  • Mean of criterion
    0.57856
  • SD of predictor
    0.17284
  • SD of criterion
    0.36576
  • Covariance
    0.03833
  • r
    0.60637
  • b (slope, estimate of beta)
    1.28314
  • a (intercept, estimate of alpha)
    0.30013
  • Mean Square Error
    0.08572
  • DF error
    75.00000
  • t(b)
    6.60385
  • p(b)
    0.00000
  • t(a)
    0.55406
  • p(a)
    0.29059
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    0.89607
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for beta
    1.67020
  • Lowerbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    -0.77899
  • Upperbound of 95% confidence interval for alpha
    1.37926
  • Treynor index (mean / b)
    0.45089
  • Jensen alpha (a)
    0.30013
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (parametric)
  • assuming log normal returns and losses (using central moments from Sharpe statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.03436
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.04340
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • VaR(95%)
    0.01586
  • Expected Shortfall on VaR
    0.03202
  • ORDER STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of return rates
  • Number of observations
    77.00000
  • Minimum
    0.93838
  • Quartile 1
    0.99267
  • Median
    1.00331
  • Quartile 3
    1.01653
  • Maximum
    1.05174
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.97423
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.99760
  • Mean of quarter 3
    1.01143
  • Mean of quarter 4
    1.02851
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.02386
  • Number outliers low
    4.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.05195
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.94723
  • Number of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.00000
  • Risk estimates for a one-period unit investment (based on Ex
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.04451
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.02073
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.02984
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.06360
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.02519
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.03747
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Quartiles of draw downs
  • Number of observations
    8.00000
  • Minimum
    0.00430
  • Quartile 1
    0.00699
  • Median
    0.02609
  • Quartile 3
    0.04156
  • Maximum
    0.19817
  • Mean of quarter 1
    0.00544
  • Mean of quarter 2
    0.01119
  • Mean of quarter 3
    0.03849
  • Mean of quarter 4
    0.12212
  • Inter Quartile Range
    0.03456
  • Number outliers low
    0.00000
  • Percentage of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Mean of outliers low
    0.00000
  • Number of outliers high
    1.00000
  • Percentage of outliers high
    0.12500
  • Mean of outliers high
    0.19817
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • Extreme Value Index (moments method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (moments method)
    0.00000
  • Extreme Value Index (regression method)
    0.00000
  • VaR(95%) (regression method)
    0.00000
  • Expected Shortfall (regression method)
    0.00000
  • COMBINED STATISTICS
  • Annualized return (arithmetic extrapolation)
    0.66387
  • Compounded annual return (geometric extrapolation)
    0.83393
  • Calmar ratio (compounded annual return / max draw down)
    4.20827
  • Compounded annual return / average of 25% largest draw downs
    6.82879
  • Compounded annual return / Expected Shortfall lognormal
    19.21640
  • Analysis based on DAILY values, last 6 months only
  • RATIO STATISTICS
  • Ratio statistics of excess log return rates
  • Statistics related to linear regression on benchmark
  • VAR (95 Confidence Intrvl)
    0.03400
  • DRAW DOWN STATISTICS
  • Risk estimates based on draw downs (based on Extreme Value T
  • assuming Pareto losses only (using partial moments from Sortino statistics)
  • Last 4 Months - Pcnt Negative
    0.25%
  • Strat Max DD how much worse than SP500 max DD during strat life?
    -297538000
  • Max Equity Drawdown (num days)
    22

Strategy Description

I recommend AutoTrading and starting with $25,000 or more. I don't agree with the recommended minimum by C2.

This description covers all three of my strategies, Patience is a Virtue (PIAV), Opt for Patience (OP), and Tax Your Patience (TYP). Each of these strategies follows the orders I make in one of three accounts I have. I put my own money into the same trades as my subscribers – as shown by my TOS badge!

All three strategies use the same basic concepts and will likely be remarkably similar over the long term. If you are wondering which one to follow, I would simply pick the one that matches your account type. TYP follows my taxable account while PIAV and OP follow Traditional and Roth IRA accounts of mine.

While I hope you follow, please consider the risks and your willingness to remain consistent. By jumping in and out you decrease your odds of success dramatically. I have seen many people join at peaks then leave after a drawdown, then repeat the process over and over. Therefore, I suggest you only follow with money that you will feel comfortable remaining consistent with.

If you want more information about how I trade these strategies, you can find some in the forum thread Patience is a Virtue located here: https://forums.collective2.com/t/patience-is-a-virtue/13676/1

I do not typically respond to subscriber questions because most have already been answered here or in the forum thread mentioned. So, let me just remind you that the market tends to transfer money from the impatient to the patient.

Good luck!

Summary Statistics

Strategy began
2020-07-12
Suggested Minimum Capital
$100,000
Rank at C2 
#117
# Trades
21
# Profitable
11
% Profitable
52.4%
Correlation S&P500
0.608
Sharpe Ratio
1.24
Sortino Ratio
1.72
Beta
1.27
Alpha
0.07
Leverage
1.47 Average
2.08 Maximum
Summary
Higher leverage = greater risk.

More information about leverage

Collective2 calculates the maximum leverage used by a strategy in each day. We then display the average of these measurements (i.e. the average daily maximum leverage) and the greatest of these measurements (maximum daily leverage).

Leverage is the ratio of total notional value controlled by a strategy divided by its Model Account equity. Generally higher leverage implies greater risk.

Example of calculation:
The Strategy buys 100 shares of stock at $12 per share.
The Model Account equity during that day is $5,000.
The leverage is: $1200 / $5,000 = 0.24

This is a useful measurement, but it should be considered in context. This measurement doesn't take into account important factors, such as when multiple positions are held that are inversely correlated. Nor does the measurement take into account the volatility of the instruments being held.

In addition, certain asset classes are inherently more leveraged than others. For example, futures contracts are highly leveraged. Forex positions are often even more leveraged than futures.

Latest Activity

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Most values on this page (including the Strategy Equity Chart, above) have been adjusted by estimated trading commissions and subscription costs.

Some advanced users find it useful to see "raw" Model Account values. These numbers do not include any commissions, fees, subscription costs, or dividend actions.

Strategy developers can "archive" strategies at any time. This means the strategy Model Account is reset to its initial level and the trade list cleared. However, all archived track records are permanently preserved for evaluation by potential subscribers.

About the results you see on this Web site

Past results are not necessarily indicative of future results.

These results are based on simulated or hypothetical performance results that have certain inherent limitations. Unlike the results shown in an actual performance record, these results do not represent actual trading. Also, because these trades have not actually been executed, these results may have under-or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity. Simulated or hypothetical trading programs in general are also subject to the fact that they are designed with the benefit of hindsight. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to these being shown.

In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program, which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Material assumptions and methods used when calculating results

The following are material assumptions used when calculating any hypothetical monthly results that appear on our web site.

  • Profits are reinvested. We assume profits (when there are profits) are reinvested in the trading strategy.
  • Starting investment size. For any trading strategy on our site, hypothetical results are based on the assumption that you invested the starting amount shown on the strategy's performance chart. In some cases, nominal dollar amounts on the equity chart have been re-scaled downward to make current go-forward trading sizes more manageable. In these cases, it may not have been possible to trade the strategy historically at the equity levels shown on the chart, and a higher minimum capital was required in the past.
  • All fees are included. When calculating cumulative returns, we try to estimate and include all the fees a typical trader incurs when AutoTrading using AutoTrade technology. This includes the subscription cost of the strategy, plus any per-trade AutoTrade fees, plus estimated broker commissions if any.
  • "Max Drawdown" Calculation Method. We calculate the Max Drawdown statistic as follows. Our computer software looks at the equity chart of the system in question and finds the largest percentage amount that the equity chart ever declines from a local "peak" to a subsequent point in time (thus this is formally called "Maximum Peak to Valley Drawdown.") While this is useful information when evaluating trading systems, you should keep in mind that past performance does not guarantee future results. Therefore, future drawdowns may be larger than the historical maximum drawdowns you see here.

Trading is risky

There is a substantial risk of loss in futures and forex trading. Online trading of stocks and options is extremely risky. Assume you will lose money. Don't trade with money you cannot afford to lose.

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This is our estimate of the minimum amount of capital to follow a strategy, assuming you use the smallest reasonable AutoTrade Scaling % for the strategy.